Water AlliesTier 2
at DTR Store Champs
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Water Genbu | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 33.2% | -12.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -7.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 62 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Castling Boon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xia Hou Dun, Gloryseeker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dredging Streams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rescue the Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mire Reparation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |